Ball Guy Pull Rate: Buy the Single or Open Shining Fates Boosters?

For this card, buying the single is statistically the smarter choice. Based on the current pull rate, single price, and booster price, opening packs for one specific Ball Guy is expected to cost more than buying the card directly.

Recommendation

Buying the single is currently the smarter price decision

For a 50% chance to pull this card you need roughly 121 packs. That costs around 1256 €, while the current single price is 2.74 €.

Pull Rate

1:175

Single price

2.74 €

Cardmarket ↗ TCGplayer ↗

Booster price

10.38 €

per Shining Fates pack

Packs for 50% chance

121

Estimated packs for a 50% chance to pull this card.

Ball Guy at a glance

Ball Guy is a Ultra Rare from Shining Fates with an estimated pull rate of 1:175 packs. At the current booster price of 10.38 €, reaching a 50% pull chance would cost about 1256 €, compared with a current single price of 2.74 €.

How many packs for a chance to pull Ball Guy?

Compare probability thresholds, estimated pack counts, and expected pack cost against buying the single.

Chance	Packs	Pack Cost	Diff vs. Buy
50% Chance	121	1256 €	+1253 €
75% Chance	242	2512 €	+2509 €
90% Chance	401	4162 €	+4160 €
99% Chance	802	8325 €	+8322 €

These pack counts are probability thresholds, not guarantees. A 50% chance means that, statistically, comparable openings would hit the card about half the time by that point.

Buy vs. pull analysis for Ball Guy

If you specifically want Ball Guy from Shining Fates, buying the single is currently the lower-cost option based on the available data. The estimated pull rate is 0.573% per pack, so even reaching a 50% chance requires about 121 boosters.

Opening packs can still make sense if you enjoy the experience, want multiple cards from the set, or value the entertainment of ripping sealed product. As a pure single-card decision, the calculator compares the expected pack cost with the current market price of the card.

FAQ about Ball Guy from Shining Fates

What is the pull rate of Ball Guy in Shining Fates?

The estimated pull rate of Ball Guy in Shining Fates is 0.573% per booster, roughly 1 out of 175 packs. This is an estimate, not a guarantee.

How many Shining Fates packs do I need for Ball Guy?

For a 50% chance you need about 121 packs. For a 90% chance you need about 401 packs. These are probability thresholds, not guaranteed results.

Should I buy Ball Guy as a single?

Based on the current pull rate, booster price, and single price, buying Ball Guy as a single is currently the statistically smarter price decision.

What does 1:175 mean for Ball Guy?

1:175 means that, on average, one copy of Ball Guy is estimated to appear per 175 booster packs. You could pull it earlier, later, or not at all within that number of packs.

Can I guarantee pulling Ball Guy by opening enough packs?

No. Booster packs are random, and no pack count can guarantee a specific card. Higher pack counts only increase the probability.

More from Shining Fates

Shining Fates pull rates View all Pokémon TCG pull rate sets

The displayed single price is based on the selected market data source where available. External links let you compare current listings on Cardmarket and TCGplayer.

Pull rates are estimates based on available data. Booster openings are random, and actual results can be better or worse than the calculated probability.

Prices updated: May 10, 2026