Cinderace Pull Rate: Buy the Single or Open Sword & Shield Boosters?

For this card, buying the single is statistically the smarter choice. Based on the current pull rate, single price, and booster price, opening packs for one specific Cinderace is expected to cost more than buying the card directly.

Recommendation

Buying the single is currently the smarter price decision

For a 50% chance to pull this card you need roughly 76 packs. That costs around 682 €, while the current single price is 0.78 €.

Pull Rate

1:109

Single price

0.78 €

Cardmarket ↗ TCGplayer ↗

Booster price

8.97 €

per Sword & Shield pack

Packs for 50% chance

Estimated packs for a 50% chance to pull this card.

Cinderace at a glance

Cinderace is a Holo Rare VMAX from Sword & Shield with an estimated pull rate of 1:109 packs. At the current booster price of 8.97 €, reaching a 50% pull chance would cost about 682 €, compared with a current single price of 0.78 €.

How many packs for a chance to pull Cinderace?

Compare probability thresholds, estimated pack counts, and expected pack cost against buying the single.

Chance	Packs	Pack Cost	Diff vs. Buy
50% Chance	76	682 €	+681 €
75% Chance	151	1354 €	+1354 €
90% Chance	251	2251 €	+2251 €
99% Chance	501	4494 €	+4493 €

These pack counts are probability thresholds, not guarantees. A 50% chance means that, statistically, comparable openings would hit the card about half the time by that point.

Buy vs. pull analysis for Cinderace

If you specifically want Cinderace from Sword & Shield, buying the single is currently the lower-cost option based on the available data. The estimated pull rate is 0.917% per pack, so even reaching a 50% chance requires about 76 boosters.

Opening packs can still make sense if you enjoy the experience, want multiple cards from the set, or value the entertainment of ripping sealed product. As a pure single-card decision, the calculator compares the expected pack cost with the current market price of the card.

Data sources and estimate quality

⚠️ No verified large-sample (500+ pack) community dataset exists specifically for swsh1 (Sword & Shield Base Set). No data found on limitlesstcg, TCGPlayer set articles, or Reddit threads with tracked swsh1 pull rates. Rates are estimated from: (1) known pack slot structure — 5C/3U/1 energy/1 reverse holo/1 rare+ (source: elitefourum.com thread on SWSH1 pack slots); (2) set card counts (202 base + 23 secret rares per Limitless SSH listing); (3) cross-referenced SWSH-era comparable pull data from Crown Zenith (cardshoplive.com, 1000-pack sample: Holo V ~10.5%, VMAX ~5.6%, Secret Rare ~1.5%); (4) Bleeding Cool / community box-level consensus of 6–10 Ultra Rares per 36-pack box. Holo Rare rate reflects the non-V holo slot filling when a hit is not pulled (~45% of packs yield a plain Holo Rare in the rare slot). Ultra Rare here refers to Full Art V/Supporter cards. Treat all figures as rough estimates only; use with caution.

FAQ about Cinderace from Sword & Shield

What is the pull rate of Cinderace in Sword & Shield?

The estimated pull rate of Cinderace in Sword & Shield is 0.917% per booster, roughly 1 out of 109 packs. This is an estimate, not a guarantee.

How many Sword & Shield packs do I need for Cinderace?

For a 50% chance you need about 76 packs. For a 90% chance you need about 251 packs. These are probability thresholds, not guaranteed results.

Should I buy Cinderace as a single?

Based on the current pull rate, booster price, and single price, buying Cinderace as a single is currently the statistically smarter price decision.

What does 1:109 mean for Cinderace?

1:109 means that, on average, one copy of Cinderace is estimated to appear per 109 booster packs. You could pull it earlier, later, or not at all within that number of packs.

Can I guarantee pulling Cinderace by opening enough packs?

No. Booster packs are random, and no pack count can guarantee a specific card. Higher pack counts only increase the probability.

More from Sword & Shield

Sword & Shield pull rates View all Pokémon TCG pull rate sets

The displayed single price is based on the selected market data source where available. External links let you compare current listings on Cardmarket and TCGplayer.

Pull rates are estimates based on available data. Booster openings are random, and actual results can be better or worse than the calculated probability.

Prices updated: May 10, 2026