Lillie's Determination Pull Rate: Buy the Single or Open Mega Evolution Boosters?

For this card, buying the single is statistically the smarter choice. Based on the current pull rate, single price, and booster price, opening packs for one specific Lillie's Determination is expected to cost more than buying the card directly.

Recommendation

Buying the single is currently the smarter price decision

For a 50% chance to pull this card you need roughly 700 packs. That costs around 4319 €, while the current single price is 54.43 €.

Pull Rate

1:1010

Single price

54.43 €

Cardmarket ↗ TCGplayer ↗

Booster price

6.17 €

per Mega Evolution pack

Packs for 50% chance

700

Estimated packs for a 50% chance to pull this card.

Lillie's Determination at a glance

Lillie's Determination is a Special Illustration Rare from Mega Evolution with an estimated pull rate of 1:1010 packs. At the current booster price of 6.17 €, reaching a 50% pull chance would cost about 4319 €, compared with a current single price of 54.43 €.

How many packs for a chance to pull Lillie's Determination?

Compare probability thresholds, estimated pack counts, and expected pack cost against buying the single.

Chance	Packs	Pack Cost	Diff vs. Buy
50% Chance	700	4319 €	+4265 €
75% Chance	1400	8638 €	+8584 €
90% Chance	2325	14345 €	+14291 €
99% Chance	4650	28691 €	+28636 €

These pack counts are probability thresholds, not guarantees. A 50% chance means that, statistically, comparable openings would hit the card about half the time by that point.

Buy vs. pull analysis for Lillie's Determination

If you specifically want Lillie's Determination from Mega Evolution, buying the single is currently the lower-cost option based on the available data. The estimated pull rate is 0.099% per pack, so even reaching a 50% chance requires about 700 boosters.

Opening packs can still make sense if you enjoy the experience, want multiple cards from the set, or value the entertainment of ripping sealed product. As a pure single-card decision, the calculator compares the expected pack cost with the current market price of the card.

FAQ about Lillie's Determination from Mega Evolution

What is the pull rate of Lillie's Determination in Mega Evolution?

The estimated pull rate of Lillie's Determination in Mega Evolution is 0.099% per booster, roughly 1 out of 1010 packs. This is an estimate, not a guarantee.

How many Mega Evolution packs do I need for Lillie's Determination?

For a 50% chance you need about 700 packs. For a 90% chance you need about 2325 packs. These are probability thresholds, not guaranteed results.

Should I buy Lillie's Determination as a single?

Based on the current pull rate, booster price, and single price, buying Lillie's Determination as a single is currently the statistically smarter price decision.

What does 1:1010 mean for Lillie's Determination?

1:1010 means that, on average, one copy of Lillie's Determination is estimated to appear per 1010 booster packs. You could pull it earlier, later, or not at all within that number of packs.

Can I guarantee pulling Lillie's Determination by opening enough packs?

No. Booster packs are random, and no pack count can guarantee a specific card. Higher pack counts only increase the probability.

More from Mega Evolution

Mega Evolution pull rates View all Pokémon TCG pull rate sets

The displayed single price is based on the selected market data source where available. External links let you compare current listings on Cardmarket and TCGplayer.

Pull rates are estimates based on available data. Booster openings are random, and actual results can be better or worse than the calculated probability.

Prices updated: Jun 16, 2026